08 AUGUST 2001

Sometimes you just have to go on record as a matter of principle.  Admittedly a cynic's view, the following is more of a plea for reality than a mean-spirited tirade.  The desperation of local Rochester community leaders is palpable. After taxpayers got shafted with a baseball stadium which sits unused for more than half the year (and promised not to cost them anything), cynical views may be more valuable than the pie-in-the-sky visions of politicians who barely know the difference between the GTA and the TTC.  Take it as you will.

A Canadian venture has proposed a Fast Ferry between Toronto and Rochester and the politicians are busy readying the cash registers on the American side.  Envisioning hordes of Canadian shoppers and tourists, the port of Rochester is being prepared with a terminal for the ferry and the obligatory nautically-themed 'shoppes' complete with trinkets and baubles which are anticipated to help boost a moribund Rochester economy.  They say the shuttle buses will truck the Canadian shoppers around to the finest malls Rochester has to offer.  They say people will be clamouring to dish out  round-trip fare to save time and the agony of a road trip from T.O. to Rochester.  They say the Rochester area has enough attractions to draw Canadians from the GTA to view such intriguing sites as a Victorian Doll museum and a rehabbed section of downtown which has the appeal of any other small city's rehabbed downtown.

Let's get real.  Please.  Considering the hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, it's worth a closer look. For purposes of comparison, the exchange is assumed at an overly generous CDN$ 1.50 = US$ 1.00.

Scenario One:  Joe and Mary Canuck from Oshawa make the 40-mile trip down to Habourfront in the minivan after the reckless abandon of the 401, the DVP and the frenetic Gardiner expressways with little Jordan and Hannah in tow.  After finding the parking lot signs firmly proclaiming 'Full', they settle for a CDN$20 slot under the Gardiner and trudge to the ferry terminal at the foot of Cherry Street, laden with all the accoutrements of intrepid tourists.  Waiting to purchase the fare for four (at CDN$ 42.75 a head - one way for pedestrian passengers over age 12), they board the technical marvel and wait for the autos to do the same.  With a 175-car capacity, this is no 15-minute undertaking but they ooh and ahh at the prospect of the two-hour 15-minute voyage across the lake while sitting at berth patiently watching the clock and listening to the safety precautions spiel. 

(Assuming a family of four; two adults and two children - one over age 12 and one under - the round-trip pedestrian passenger fare would be CDN$ 256.50.  Just for comparison sake: a single, one-way, non-stop Air Canada flight from Pearson International to the Greater Rochester Airport costs C$ 352 and takes flight time is 44 minutes.)

Comparing the time it takes for the Ferry to cross the lake with car travel is ludicrous.  The entire process of parking, waiting in line to pay fare, waiting for the Ferry to completely load, crossing the lake, disembarking, waiting to clear Customs and then traveling to the desired location needs to be considered when comparing the Ferry travel time to a car.  The whole idea here is to get from Point A to Point B which is the total time required to get from the driveway to the desired destination in Rochester or Toronto... not simply the time it takes to physically cross the lake.  It doesn't take a professional navigator to figure out that.

Meanwhile, their neighbours across the street have decided to make the trip to Rochester via highway and are already in St.Catharines having spent the two hours in transit actually getting closer to their destination as opposed to sitting tied up at a dock.

After shoving CDN$10-20 worth of ship's food in the kids, the cast-off time finally arrives and the voyage is under way.  Slowly maneuvering out of Toronto Harbour, the craft eases into open waters and begins to pick up speed some hour or two after the C's arrived at the ferry terminal.  The weather is as you're no doubt imagining it.. a bright sunny day with placid waters.  After all, this is the model the American politicians have been picturing, so of course the ideal conditions of the lake are in place and the wind is calm.  By now, the neighbours have cleared U.S. Customs, passed the Williamsville toll booths and are less than an hour from Thruway Exit 46. 

The trip itself is thrilling for the first hour or so after which the heady excitement lapses into less enthusiasm.   By Hour Two, the trip over is nearing its end and the passengers prepare to disembark as the ship slows to a crawl once the Charlotte Pier begins to appear in the distance.  Wave damage and all that.

At long last, the ship enters the mouth of the Genesee River and is barely moving toward the terminal.  Once the lines are tied, the gangways are lowered and the rush to wait for Customs Inspection begins for the maximum of 800 passengers and 175 cars.  Having cleared Customs, Mr. & Mrs. C  and Family trundle on the waiting bus to be taken wherever it may be going.  Their choice is the Shopping Mecca of the Market Place Mall they've heard so much about.  

What they didn't know is, aside from trouncing around the inside of a perfectly generic mall, the other shopping hotspots are acres of parking lot away with no sidewalks.  The 30-minute shuttle bus ride to the mall, assuming it is an express bus with no stops, departs after waiting to be filled with passengers as they trickle through Customs.  Should they opt for a city bus, the time doubles.  Taking a cab for a family of four from Charlotte to Henrietta cuts down on time, but minimally triples the fare of a shuttle.  Renting a car would make the whole excursion longer and more expensive than as if they brought the family car on board.

Their neighbours are already halfway through shopping having arrived at the mall some three hours before Mr. & Mrs. C. and their CDN$ 96 room at the Econo-Room Motel saved them the cost of gas over a more expensive hotel which provides complimentary shuttle service.  They've already checked out the variety of restaurants available and feel less like pack mules from stowing the loot in the trunk of the car.

By now, the C's mall purchases are taking on the qualities of a sherpa guide's backpack.  Another discovery is the smug smile of cashiers who proudly proclaim they don't take Canadian money (even though Toronto merchants accept American cash with a reasonable exchange).  Mr. & Mrs. C are ready to call it a day and pick up a courtesy phone to one of the local hotels which has generously offered to pick them up and ferry them to their CDN$ 135 rooms for the night.   The downtown rooms are hovering around CDN$ 160 for quad occupancy at one of the nondescript hotel chains.

Eager to sample the American version of beer at 25 cents a bottle less than they paid in Toronto after the exchange, they settle in for a meal at the hotel restaurant.  A trip to one of the chains of restaurants (easily found anywhere in the GTA) is a cab ride away as is the liquor store, so they opt for whatever is on the menu at almost twice the price after the exchange of what might also be found back home.  The cheap liquor comes with a delivery charge from the closest liquor store and now is closing in on the price of the LCBO.  They're allowed to take two bottles back to Toronto and figure it's not worth tossing on the growing pile of loot they've purchased and have to lug on the courtesy van back to the shuttle bus pickup point to take them back to the ferry terminal the next day.

Not wanting to miss the boat, they load the kids with purchases and begin the trek back to the ferry.  Since they've stayed in the States less than 48 hours, they've had to forgo buying the down-filled comforter as its would exceed the allowable limit for goods brought back to Canada duty-free.  Besides, wallowing around with a purchase of that bulk isn't worth the effort to save the CDN$ 20 it would have cost them at The Bay.

After every passenger and car is loaded on, the trip back to Harbourfront begins.  Arriving at Customs Canada, they wait in line for those arguing with the agents about the excessive purchases. 

The neighbours have exceeded their limit as well, but the five open wickets at the Queenston-Lewiston Bridge makes the wait less aggravating. 

Waddling back to the car under the Gardiner, they load kids and loot and begin the trek back to Oshawa as the neighbours are settling in at home having arrived hours before.  The respective neighbours decide the exchange rate combined with the limited attractions make the Rochester trip a one-shot deal.

Scenario Two: Desiring to get in a trek across the lake before the ferry shuts down for the next six months due to winter weather and ice, a young Toronto couple decides to try out the action of Downtown Rochester.  They'd rather make it an overnight trip but the ferry schedule dictates a two-night stay as the transit time plus waiting for tickets, boarding and Customs inspection stretches the commute to well past seven hours for a return-trip and an overnighter just isn't feasible.  They opt to load their car on board so they'll have ready transportation upon arrival at Charlotte.  CDN$ 60 for the car plus CDN$ 45.00 for two passengers for a total of CDN$ 210 round-trip.

Once again, the Lake is the placid and serene vision of the Ferry organizers' plan... despite the fickle nature of the Great Lakes weather in October.  Having boarded early, their car is one of the last to be unloaded and the 82 cars ahead of them (half the maximum) gives them plenty of time to peruse the map which guides them to the Downtown core along Lake Avenue.  Waiting for 80-some cars to clear U.S. Customs at the border bridges can be a 20-30 minute wait even with four to five wickets open (and presumably, there are no plans for a similar number of inspection stations dedicated for cars at Charlotte). The sights are less than stimulating but the Kodak Park complex is notable as is the Genesee River which they cross repeatedly in their attempt to navigate the one-way streets trying to find the entrance to the hotel parking lot.

After checking in, they find out the High Falls entertainment district is a healthy jaunt from the East End clubs and the buses cease operations after 1am.  Drinking and driving isn't an option.  Taxis are the only alternative as the party limos are booked in advance and they decide to leave the Monroe Avenue scene for another time.  

Shopping is virtually non-existent within the Inner Loop and is limited to a tired mall which has more vacant shops than ones which are open.   This Rochester version of the Eaton Centre features a musical clock, food food joints, a bus terminal and a host of security guards.  The local hockey team is playing at home but somehow lacks the appeal of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  The much-touted Frontier Field has seen its last sports game for the season and sits vacant for the next six months.  It's yet to turn a profit since opening in 1997.

Bar-hopping is limited to a handful of venues without transportation, so they choose to sample the Cultural District and look into a few of the more interesting restaurants which proclaim their similarities to New York City establishments.  With no tax rebates (as is the case for their American counterparts to Canada), the young couple decide it's cheaper and infinitely more interesting to spend a night on the town in T.O. which offers public transportation in one mode or another on a 24/7 basis.  

They vow it's been a one-time adventure.

Scenario Three:  The retired couple from Richmond Hill begin their trip to Florida and are intrigued with the potential to save time by loading a loaded car on the ferry.  The CAA brochures have proclaimed Rochester as being the Gateway to the Finger Lakes and they figure they'll take in the autumn sights as they head south.  The forty miles to the nearest Finger Lake from the Ferry Terminal looks shorter on a map than in reality.

They pay the CDN$ 105 (not including the 7% GST) for a one-way car fare and two passengers

After clearing the U.S. Customs, they beat a hasty path to the nearest expressway.  Their Rochester experience consists of passing a few bars and restaurants, a Quicki-Mart and a tattoo parlour as they head for their accommodations conveniently located in commercial strips next to an expressway.  They find out the gray skies of the southern shore of Lake Ontario contrast greatly with the sunnier north side and inquire about the availability of indoor activities aside from shopping.  

The casinos of Oneida and Niagara Falls are nowhere to be found, but the church Bingo games are the fun family attractions of the area.  Deciding to take in a movie, they find out the offerings at the suburban Googol-Plex would cost them over CDN$ 40 for popcorn, drinks and two admissions.   The classic movie palaces are no more and the handful of city theatres offers the indy-film variety which has limited mass appeal.

They do some quick math and decide they'd be in Pennsylvania by now had they driven from the GTA to cross at the Peace Bridge in Buffalo and they'd be considerably farther ahead in both time and money.  They vow this is a one-time deal and choose to make the return trip in the spring via highway.

The ferry season wouldn't have started anyway as ice in March has a tendency to damage the hull of a vessel as it whips across the lake.

These are purely hypothetical examples of course, but the entire project is based on hypothesis at this point.  The scenarios are not logistically exaggerated though.  Any project of this nature can be easily manipulated to an overly optimistic view which looks good on the drawing table but has no basis in reality. 

A few what-ifs:

• What if the operation doesn't prove to be economically viable and is scrapped after a few seasons?  Toronto has the option of using it's ferry terminal for other purposes.. even selecting another destination such as Montréal.  What options does Rochester have for an unused, highly specialized facility?

• The old Rochester-Cobourg ferry was discontinued decades ago due to a lack of support.  With the QEW expanded to three lanes in each direction from St.Catharines to Toronto, what makes this ferry proposal any more appealing than when highways were less developed?

• The time spent before, during and after the lake crossing is undeniably no faster than by car.  It certainly isn't any cheaper and may indeed be far less convenient.  Given these factors, what makes the developers think they'll be able to sustain enough passengers after the initial novelty wears off to prove feasible from a long-term business vantage?

• How long is the fast ferry season on Lake Ontario?  April to November might be an optimistic timeframe, but May to October may be more realistic.  With a minimum of four months of downtime for the entire operation, including the Port of Rochester facility, would there be enough revenue generated to cover expenses?  If not, what happens then?   Who gets stuck with the bill? 

• The Rochester proponents are more enthralled with the concept than with the reality of the details.  There's been little to no serious attempt to consider the actual logistics... only wild generalizations and unreal assumptions.  Every taxpayer should be asking themselves, "Do I intend to use this service on a regular basis?"  One or two trips by a small percentage of the local population won't sustain the enormous costs of this project for very long.

• The environmental impact of fast ferries has been under fire from Long Island to San Francisco.  With lakeshore residents whining about the lake level on a regular basis, it's hard to imagine the wake of the ferry would do anything to add to shoreline preservation.  The safety issues of crossing the lake at a point where boat traffic is relatively congested is also a concern.... particularly in the Inner Harbour of Toronto.  Sailboats and small watercraft have little chance of getting out of the way of a 100-metre craft speeding toward them.

• "This is an exciting opportunity for the City of Rochester," said (Rochester) Mayor Johnson. "Roughly 41 million Canadians visit the United States each year. We want to make sure that Rochester will be an easy, accessible and exciting business and tourist destination that more Canadian citizens will take advantage of. The Fast Ferry will enable this to happen."  Rochester Mayor Bill Johnson, February 24, 1999    

Two points: First, the entire population of Canada in 2001 is 30,301,000.  Even owing to numerous repeat visits, the numbers of Canadians visiting Rochester is a miniscule fraction of that.  Secondly, unless Mayor Johnson possesses a remarkable talent to see into the future, his statement can only be marginally valid by stating, "The Fast Ferry may enable this to happen".  He has no basis to declare anything either will or won't happen in the future.  Given the highly speculative nature of this project, his optimism may be premature at best.

• The seasoned traveler to and from Canada can easily attest to the effect the exchange rate has on the number of visits, the amount of money spent and the investment potential from Canadians.  The U.S. tourist would understand this concept better if they found their American dollar was only worth 50 to 60 cents in Canada.  International currency exchange rates fluctuate wildly and are among the most volatile of any investment.  

Canadian tourist numbers to the States reflect this instability and forecasting the number of Canadian tourists from month to month... let alone year to year.. is highly speculative even with the most informed sources.  Ten years ago, few could have imagined a U.S.-to-Canadian exchange rate greater than 35%; today it's around 47% and has exceeded 50% within the past year.  That translates to a horrendous discount for the Canadian tourist's buying power.... and a commensurate drop in Canadian tourists to the States.  Hardly good news for investors counting on an influx of Canadians to support their venture.

• The tourism and travel industry is directly tied to the state of the respective economies.  Tourism is one of the first activities individuals cut back on in tough economic times and even a mild recession has a noticeable impact.  The travel industry is currently in a depressed state and a novel, but expensive boat ride to a small U.S. city is looking even more frivolous.  Should a full-scale recession take hold in either country, the concept of a Fast Ferry would sink faster than a Personal Watercraft struck by a speeding 100-metre ship.

• 'Creates jobs' has taken on trance-inducing qualities and politicians use every opportunity they can to include it in their bid to win favour.   If the ferry season is indeed less than year-round, how many full-time, liveable waged jobs will it create?  $8.00/hr is not a liveable wage in the Greater Rochester area.  Pushing ice cream and souvenirs provides limited opportunity for career advancement.

What does this all say about the foresight of the developers and politicians?  It certainly appears the project is being rammed through despite the potential for economic and environmental disaster.  People have been blinded by the promises of leaders who have no intention of tolerating any skepticism even though there are more indications of the possibility for failure than success.  Undoubtedly, if the Fast Ferry actually begins operations, the initial flurry of interest will show promising numbers and make for stunning slideshow charts.

So what?  The proof is in the longevity.  The success is in continuously increasing numbers of passengers over a period of, say, ten seasons.  Using data such as a percent increase from the previous season is not only misleading, but deceptive as well.  As an example only, if there were 500 passengers the first year of operation and 1000 passengers the second, the data would show a 100% increase in one year.  It sounds great and makes for great fodder for the masses.  But would 1000 passengers a year be considered a success?

Hardly.  The raw numbers would point to a dismal failure and be completely incapable of supporting a project of this magnitude.  It's these raw totals which are the only true indicators of success.  Manipulating data is a science unto itself and one which politicians and business leaders use to their advantage when needed.

The popularity of the Fast Ferry vastly outpaces the line-up of investors.  The Rochester area, in its desperation for any recognition or boost to its stagnant growth, is clutching at straws.  Toronto has little to lose; it's staggering growth will continue whether the project succeeds or fails.

Rochester and Monroe County stand to lose a great deal should the promises fail to materialize.  It certainly wouldn't be the first time the Rochester area leaders missed their mark.  It's wonderful to keep an upbeat attitude, but ignoring reality is an invitation for financial disaster.

The Rochester community can continue it's hypnotic fixation while steadfastly ignoring reality, or it can use a minutia of common sense and dare to go against popular sentiment.

12 OCTOBER 2003

It's now been over two years since this page was updated and a progress report is needed.

The Fast Fiasco is marching along nicely and it will be delightful to see this project actually get off the ground.  That will make its demise all the sweeter.

And yes, I'll be quietly muttering my I-told-you-so's once the misguided plan goes awry.

Some might wonder why I'm so vocal about my opposition to this whole plan and the reason is really quite simple: it was conceived and planned on gross assumptions and innuendo.  My scenarios of 08 August 2001 are as relevant today as they were two years ago.  And the US Dollar's plunge in value (USD$ 1 = CDN$ 1.34 currently) which makes the Ferry less of a 'bargain' than it was two years ago. 

True enough, the price of gasoline is dramatically higher than it was two years ago, but the time factor has not changed even with increased border wait times since 11 September 2001.

The Fast Ferry folks have even rolled out a very nice website extolling the perceived virtues of this slower and more expensive method of getting to and from both Toronto and Rochester.  From the chart to the left, the Proposed Round trip fare for a walk-on individual would be USD$ 56.  A car with one passenger would incur a round trip fare of USD$ 100 (add one more passenger and the cost jumps to USD$ 120). All but the very worst gas mileage vehicles would take nowhere near the cost of a car-plus-driver round trip fare.

Obviously, the transit time of 2-1/4 hours does not figure in the time for boarding and unloading at the beginning and end of the trip... which will vary greatly based on the number of cars and passengers.

Several weeks ago, while reading his copy which had a laughable estimate of 5-1/2 hours from Rochester to Toronto by highway, a local Rochester newscaster wryly commented it must have been "using a moped".   Anybody who lives in Monroe County who can't make the trip to Toronto in well under 3-1/2 hours is in no hurry in the first place.  Choosing a supposedly 'faster' (and unquestionably more expensive) method of transportation via the lake route wouldn't seem to be much of an imperative.

"Proposed schedule will include 3 - 6 round trips per day.  365 days a year".  Hmmm.  Mea Culpa, but it still remains to be seen how an aluminium hull is going to take on ice flows which can easily be 4-6 feet in depth.  "Speeds up to 42 knots (50mph)".  But don't count on every trip to be a full throttle skim across the water... the vessel is capable of reaching speeds of 42 knots (50 mph) but just as weather has an effect on the speed of highway traffic, 4-6 foot swells and waves on Lake Ontario (not uncommon) will dictate slower speeds to reduce the potential for seasickness among passengers from a rough ride.  Barfing one's way to Toronto or Rochester is unlikely to win repeat passengers and rave reviews.

"3 to 6 round trips, 365 days a year".   Amazing.  Amazing that people will actually buy into that grandiose projection.  Amazing that anybody with enough capital to invest in such an endeavour would actually believe that there will be sufficient numbers of passengers to support the venture.  Amazing that the public can't seem to use enough common sense to realise that while the actual transit time may sound impressive, the actual total time (including loading of vehicles and passengers, waiting to get under way, plus the transit time, then preparing to arrive, disembarking, Customs clearance at either or both ends of the journey) will be no better than driving the entire way to Toronto.  And a helluva lot more expensive.

These numbers and figures which CATS is pumping out are so blatantly jaded and obnoxiously exaggerated that even the dimmest of minds can see the desperate clutching at straws.

RochesterEnvironment.com has an exceptionally comprehensive listing of Fast Ferry links and environmental concerns surrounding the project.  For a more in-depth examination of this issue, please take some time to review the site; it's reassuring to see there are other local residents who've looked past the hype and hoopla and realised this is a fiscal disaster even before the maiden voyage has been made.

Oh yes, there's the dreadfully onerous drive to Toronto that CATS is pushing as well.  Nevermind that the Queen Elizabeth Way is three wide lines each way from St.Catharines all the way to Toronto... capable of accommodating 33% more traffic than the New York State Thruway at any speed.  Forget that the QEW has fewer hills or curves than any comparable distance on the NYS Thruway and is free... and any CAA/AAA tow truck is allowed to be on the scene as opposed to the exclusivity of towing contracts with the Thruway Authority which results in far more costly towing if needed.

No, every chance to exaggerate, misconstrue or stretch the truth has been used in an effort to convince the potential Ferry passenger that "life is easier and faster... if you'll only throw your money OUR way".  And the gullible anti-logic set buys right into it... literally. 

As a Canadian citizen who not only spends a great deal more time in Canada, along with far greater familiarity of the Canadian attitudes, trends and opinions than any of the Rochester Fast Ferry ensemble (Read: Local Politicians), I can unequivocally state I'm more in touch with the Canadian psyche than the average local Rochester area resident.  These same residents are the ones dutifully and compliantly nodding in unison as requested.

It will be interesting, of course, when this service meets its inevitable end to see the proponents scrambling for reasons, excuses and scapegoats to off-load the responsibility for its demise.  If these cheerleaders are wont to scramble facts, figures and logic in a bid to shove through the ferry project, is there any reason to believe they'll suddenly resort to an honest "we screwed up" when the business shuts down?  Classic spin ahead: bad currencies exchange rates, a depressed local economy, a depressed national economy or the traditional 'unforeseen circumstances beyond our control'.

Codswallop.  With figures in excess of $50 million being tossed about like so much playground funding, the accountability and complete responsibility for both the success or failure of the Fast Ferry rests entirely on those signing contracts and cheques.  If these people are unwilling or incapable of guaranteeing long-term success, they need to step aside.  Accountability has become almost a crap shoot; it the thing works out, the rush to grab the glory takes on a self-satisfied mob mentality with community leaders' egos reaching epic proportions.   If the project bites the dust, the blame is scattered in as many directions as the gullible public can handle.

This Ferry project, while marginally original, has no chance of long term success.  The numbers simply do not add up despite the wild prognostications the spinmeisters are willing to toss to the banks, the governments and the public.  This project has no basis in logic, no solid evidence of a need and once the initial novelty wears off, it will become an expensive redundancy.

All of which will be proven in time. 

You read it here first.

04 DECEMBER 2003

OHHH, Toronto.  You're not hopping up and down with as much baited anticipation over a fast ferry to Rochester as you're supposed to be.

Now don't you know of the many attractions which await your arrival to the sunny south side of Lake Ontario?  Museums, shops, restaurants, new sports venues, concert halls, local foods and a history which is unique and interesting.

What's that you say?  You already have all those things in your own backyard and don't need a pricy dedicated link to access those attractions??  You say Rochester is an interesting place and all that, but with expressways all the way from downtown to downtown a fast ferry is a bit superfluous and redundant??

Well, yes... we know that... but this is ROCHESTER we're talking about.... you know... Lilac Festival, Kodak and home of a prized hot dog that's white instead of red.   That sort of fame can't be bought even with Canadian Tire money... this is some place different and you REALLY want to visit it on a glitzy boat, don't you?

No??

Oh... WELL THEN.  We might just have to cancel our cheap weekend package to the Delta Chelsea and punish you for not showing even a modicum of interest like our consultants told us you would.  What nerve.  And if that weren't bad enough, the poisoned pens of a few of your newspaper writers have the unmitigated GALL to report their observations in a media which is read around the world.

Hrmmph.  See if we add our US$ 300 to the Toronto economy... THAT'LL put a real dent in your bottom line, yessireebob.

But given you Canadians didn't kowtow to our Commander-In-Chief's order to send your troops into Iraq, it only makes sense you leftist, pot-smoking, pro-gay marriage misfits won't play our game and rush to buy advance sale tickets on a fast ferry which can't even get up the St.Lawrence Seaway until it opens in the spring.

Yeah... that figures.  You hate us.  You hate Americans.  It's obvious.  You won't even support a big boat scheme.  That proves you don't like us right there.

Well... you talk funny... whaddya think of THAT??  Who needs you?  We don't care what other people think of us.  We know Rochester is a wonderful place and...  and...  and if you don't want to come and dump money here...  well... we'll just use that big building that's being constructed in the nether region in the Port of Rochester for something else.  Yeah... yeah.. THAT'S what we'll do.

(                                                      )

OH, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!!!  Won't you get excited about this Fast Ferry???  It means so much to us because our economy is in the dumper due to decades of complacency, provincialism, conservatism and traditionalism.  We try to be cosmopolitan like you... we even have sushi, Pier One and Starbucks here!!  

That proves we're Groovy People just like you.

We love Toronto.  We've even shopped for souvenirs in the Eaton Centre and bought Hard Rock Cafe Toronto t-shirts.  That proves we're dedicated fans of Toronto.

Well... if this project goes down the drain, we're going to blame YOU.  Yeah... it's not because we don't have a clue about what sort of attractions Toronto residents like.  It's not because our eyes start spinning trying to figure out how the exchange rate works and why your dollar doesn't go as far down here.

No... it'll be YOUR fault for not paying more attention to us and our pipe-dreams.  Our community leaders are so hip, progressive and forward thinking, they've even attended business meetings without ties.  That's edgy, no?

Well, see if we ever give Mayor David Miller a foil-covered key to OUR city.

THEN you'll be sorry... we're gonna tell our Governor on you... yeah... yeah... THAT'S what we're gonna do... you'll be sorry... yeah...

12 DECEMBER 2003

This is getting too good to ignore.  It reads like some well-scripted saga of misplaced hopes and dreams in addition to governmental and corporate snow jobs.  Carefully worded, the spin-doctors are churning out blurbs of breathless anticipation and an anxious public fairly pushing against chain-link construction fences to buy tickets.

Gotta admit; the locals on the southern side of the pond are eating it up.

Let's take a look at some numbers:

From Senator Chuck Shumer's website:

"US Senator Charles Schumer today urged Canadian Minister of Transport (David Collenette) to get the Canadian federal government to make its first funding commitment to the proposed fast ferry that would link Rochester and Toronto.... To date (October 01, 2002), the US federal government has awarded more than $17 million dollars toward improvements to the Port of Rochester, including a ferry terminal with US Immigration and Naturalization Service and Customs facilities. The City of Rochester and New York State also committed a combined $15.4 million for development of facilities and operation of this service. Meanwhile, the City of Toronto and the Toronto Port Authority have provided $100,000 to gauge market demand for the fast ferry."

From the Spirit of Ontario website:

TPA BOARD APPROVES FAST FERRY TERMINAL Proposes Two Conditions to be met by City TORONTO, Dec. 10 (2003) /CNW/ - The Board of Directors of the Toronto Port Authority today approved in principle the construction of a new passenger terminal at its port facilities on Cherry Street to accommodate a Toronto-Rochester ferry service scheduled to begin in May 2004. The Board approved a sum of up to CDN$8 million dollars for the facility which will house an arrivals and departures hall, retail space and facilities for customs and immigration. "We are very excited about moving forward with the fast ferry terminal as quickly as possible. The board has attached two conditions to its approval which require co-operation from the City of Toronto," said Henry Pankratz, chairman of the TPA. "First, we require the city to honour the terms of the Minutes of Settlement and make the scheduled payment of CDN$7.2 million by January 1, 2004. Second, because the area does not currently have sewage service, we require the city to assist us with the costs of interim sewage treatment until such time as the necessary permanent infrastructure is installed."

From Democrat & Chronicle website:

"As for the terminal, the plan remains to build a temporary facility — one that could last 10 to 15 years — for less than $10 million (Canadian), Pankratz said."

OK.  Let's pause and see what we have.  So far, the terminal on the Rochester side has a projected cost of CDN$30 million and is abuzz with activity.

So far, the terminal on the Toronto side has yet to be built.  When (and if) it gets built, it'll be such a temporary structure, even the sewer lines won't be permanent and the cost for the temporary Canadian terminal will be less than US$ 6.5 million.

And there are two stipulations which have less than two weeks to be met; the City of Toronto must come up with CDN$ 7.2 million PLUS contractually agree that the City of Toronto will provide the temporary sewer lines out on the Cherry St pier.  January 01, 2004 is the deadline.

Toronto Port Authority: "Don't blame us.... it's the Toronto City Council which didn't come through with the money in time and they balked at 'temporary' sanitary lines... environmental concerns or something like that.  Our contract says everything is 'contingent' on all parties involved agreeing with the proposals.  City Council didn't; sorry, no deal."

Oh, one other thing.   Canadian Federal Transport Minister David Collenette is packing up his desk having just been fired from his post by the new Prime Minister, Paul Martin.  You U.S. business and banking concerns DID know about the change in national leadership... didn't you?

"Sorry CATS;  your Fast Ferry project was approved and supported by  a previous Transport Minister who's no longer with us.  Change of staff means a change of priorities... and we have to cut corners where we can.  You do understand how that happens when your country changes administrations, don't you?"

Ya know... it sure looks like the Toronto position is leaving itself as many ways to opt OUT of the project as they're able.   Doesn't it make sense if the Toronto side were enthralled with this project they'd be scrambling to construct more than the equivalent of an oversized porta-potty? 

Rochester terminal: CDN$ 30 million.  Toronto terminal: less than CDN$ 10 million.  Not hard to see (1) which community has higher expectations and (2) which community stands to lose more if the thing goes belly-up. 

If this project had some long term indication of succeeding, from the Toronto point of view wouldn't it make sense to invest CDN$ 10 million instead slapping up some facility with a short lifespan?  That's assuming, of course, if any of the Toronto interests have a healthy belief this Fast Ferry concept has a chance of remaining afloat.  If not, a temporary facility will work just fine as it can easily be carted away should the whole project be scrapped at some point.  Sounds more fiscally prudent... to me anyway.

Meanwhile, on the Rochester side, supremely confident that the Spirit of Ontario will be disgorging thousands of Canadian arrivals, the CATS-contracted corporate cheerleaders are running ads and a slick website ( www.spiritofontario.com ) which is already selling tickets for this cause célèbre.  Local news outlets have confirmed this and CATS officials, although they're not divulging numbers, say the number of sales have 'covered promotional and advertising costs'.

Isn't THAT special?  Hate to break the news to the CATS people, but it's going to take a helluva lot more than some sales which cover the cost of a website to pay for a US$ 42.5 million  five-story tall ferry.   By the native canadian standards, the monthly cost of renting 50MB of disk space is US$ 8 a month... and if that sort of revenue is something to cheer about, these CATS guys are in a world of trouble even before the thing makes it up the St.Lawrence.

From Senator Chuck Shumer's website:

"..."This is an exciting project for Rochester, it can help spark economic development, more jobs, and increase tourism. There are naysayers out there regarding this project, but we need to try to do whatever we can to improve our economic climate and this project could help do it," Schumer wrote in the letter..."

Wow.  A politician with a grasp of the obvious.

Let the record show that I'm not against  the Fast Ferry... never have been.  I simply take a look at reality based on personal observations and experiences in the Toronto area on a consistent basis for the past twenty years... and come to the conclusion that a fast ferry of this magnitude and nature cannot be a viable business venture.  Period.

I am not a city planner, architect, engineer, tourism consultant, marketing guru, sailor, advertising guy or even a governmental economic developer.

I'm a Canadian - First Nations - U.S. citizen who has more than a passing insight into the Regular Joe and Jane Doe on both sides of Lake Ontario.  I spend enough time in both communities as a traveler and consumer to have a solid grip on what will  - or won't -  appeal to the common resident because I am one.

An impressive ship, but will it float financially?

And I'll also take the liberty of stating I spend more time in both Toronto and Rochester than either of the respective community leaders who seemingly have such a keen handle on what Joe or Jane Doe will buy into.  I'll personally match the total number of hours spent in the GTA in 2003 with Jack Doyle, Maggie Brooks and Bill Johnson COMBINED.

That might give an idea of how often I'm in the Toronto area.  Not simply for a few hours or an overnight meeting with business and/or political leaders... which is about as revealing of what the typical resident wants or needs as guessing condiment preferences of a student living in Bosnia.

Again, yes of course, the locals will gawk and oooh and ahhh at the sight of a huge floating entertainment pleasure cruiser as it whips across Lake Ontario.  I'll even go so far as to state sales will be brisk at the initial startup of the service.  'Build it and they will come'... that sort of thing.

But will 'they stay'?  That's the crucial question which hasn't been asked yet and I'm not referring to lodging either.  Will the prospective customers make enough repeated trips to sustain the operation?  Travelers making one trip then never using the service again aren't going to be of any help to keep the venture afloat.

As for being a 'naysayer', 'cynic', 'skeptic', 'pessimist' or any of the other labels the cheerleaders are tossing around, I prefer 'realist'.  I'd think considering the millions of dollars... including a big chunk of change from both the New York State and U.S. taxpayers (grants, loans), there needs to be more 'realist' labels being heaped on the general public.

By obvious accounts, this project is too far along to back out without somebody losing enormous amounts of money.  Lawsuits are in the making... that's another prediction I feel confident enough to make.... either when the thing never gets off the ground or when it turns into a floating white elephant and contracts are broken.

Exaggerated travel times by car.  Wild projections on the numbers of passengers who'll use the service.  An expensive and superfluous method of travel to and from Toronto which neither saves total transit time or consumer dollars.  Unrealistic numbers of daily crossings based on service availability 365 days a year.  Marine travel on one of the Great Lakes which see gales and storms sweep in in a matter of minutes (and sunk one of the largest ships to ever navigate those waters, the Edmund Fitzgerald ).

Will the Spirit of Ontario be capable of handling a Great Lakes winter crossing?  I have no doubt that it will.  That's not an issue.

Will the Spirit of Ontario be a unique and exciting way of getting to and from Toronto-Rochester?  I have no doubt it will.  THAT'S not an issue.

Will the Spirit of Ontario be capable of attracting sufficient numbers of passengers to make the operation financially feasible?  I have MUCH doubt that it will.  THAT'S the issue.

Then there's the no-small-matter of accountability; who should be held responsible for either the success or the failure of this venture?  If the project fails, there'd better not be any "It's the public's fault for not using the service" going on.  It's ludicrous to believe some organisation is providing this service for altruistic reasons.  CATS is a private company which is out to turn a profit and if they've based their business model on unrealistic and erroneous data, the buck stops there.

If local politicians - on either side of the lake - bought into the sales pitch without keeping an eye on reality, they must also share the blame.  

Stay tuned.  The saga continues.

15 APRIL 2004

(This Is An Impending Rant Alert.  This Is NOT A Test.)

Well, well, well.  Seems I've been remiss on my reporting here as the last tirade was in December of last year.

And yes indeed, I've received email from local hicks... ermm... RESIDENTS... of the Rochester area who've stamped their feet and whined because I'm not singing along with the rest of the chorus as is so de rigueur for this area.  Remember now; I've already gone over the lesson on "How To 'Fit In' In The Rochester Area"... astute readers will recall that independent thinking, personal convictions and unconventional-nonconservative-unprovincial and alternative views and lifestyles are soundly frowned upon by the local population.  This is No-Change-Is-Good-Medicine Territory.  Change involves an element of uncertainty and unpredictability and we certainly don't wish to be unpredictable around here.

The nice, orderly, risk-avoidance Rochester area will do everything possible to ignore those who speak out against projects which have the stamp of 'Popular Project' emblazoned upon it.  "Non-Team Player", they say.  "Nattering Nabob of Negativity", they smirk.

Personally, I rather like "A Common Man's Realist".  Those are the most dangerous kind to the Suits who feel they're so well in touch with The Little People.  You know... the Little People who're being relied upon to keep a private business venture afloat.   The Buick crowd values demographics over common sense.  Tiger Woods even says so and he's.... well, he's Tiger Woods and a multi-millionaire walking billboard of a golfer should know, right? 

Diversity's cool if THEY earn more than ME.

Otherwise, it's just a bunch of Politically Correct Crap.  Think that's hyperbole?  Visit Rochester.

Take a look at the screaming headline of the local fish-wrapper today (full article follows the venom below).

" Ferry Officials Fret Over Tardy Toronto "

Oh dear.  Worry and Angst Time.  Unpredictability has reared its ugly head and the Who's in Whoville are fidgeting over an already delayed start date due to a bumbling captain who can't even manoeuvre a brand new ferry into one of the world's finest ports without crashing into the dock.  I'd say that's a rather auspicious start and the boat hasn't even made it to Lake Ontario yet.

<<Worry>>   <<Angst>>

But have no fear, Dear Gentle Reader.  Let's have a look at one of the emails I've received from one of the local gnomes, shall we?

"  Re: How Stupid Do These Guys Think We Are (fastferry)

   i was very unhappy with that article i am never gonig to canda again  "

And by now, readers of this website will no doubt expect a thoughtful reply from yours truly to such an eloquently written and profound sentiment.  The native canadian does not disappoint:

"i was very unhappy with that article i am never gonig to canda again"

And on behalf of literate Canadians everywhere, we thank you.

Kanowakeron

Oh my.  Was I a bit too harsh?  Good.

Actually I'm not sure why I even care, as - try as I might - I just can't seem to locate a place called  'canda' on any map.  Even Microsoft Streets and Trips doesn't show anything.  Perhaps the poor soul meant 'C-A-N-A-D-A', ya think?  Frankly I'm not sure how somebody who can't even correctly spell a country's name is capable of even FINDING the place, but I digress.

Now here's a little ditty one of the locals came up with.  It's worth noting the original tune is composed by Gordon Lightfoot... who is, of course, 100% Canadian:

Strange... but that cynical sentiment seems to be familiar.  Hmmm.  Could it be there are more than just a few Doubting Thomas' in this area?  Is it possible those pesky Naysayers of Negativity are more numerous than the local politicians have imagined?

Is there a  T I N Y  chance this who project will go belly up within two years?

In a word: yes.  To be more specific, there's an overwhelming probability this whole project is going to sink as fast as the Edmund Fitzgerald and with as little notice as the Big Fitz's demise.  While the ferry itself may not (God Forbid) actually sink in the lake, the financial quarterly reports on this fiasco should have the investors grabbing pitchforks, tar buckets and a whole lotta feathers in short order.

Don't say you weren't warned.

"So, K.  Whaddya think about this Toronto Ferry deal?" 

Yup, I get asked the same question by locals who know I'm Canadian and have more than a passing knowledge of T.O..  And since I'm asked, I believe in responding in a truthful manner: "The thing's gonna go belly up within two years."

Oh the horror.  What cheekiness.  How ignominious.  How unpleasant.  The reactions are almost feigned revulsion - except I've lived here long enough to realize that not chiming in with the rest of the nodding sheep results in ACTUAL revulsion.  In the 'nicest' sort of Rochester way - which is to say, totally disregarding that which we do not want to hear.   'Denial' has been elevated to an art form here in River City. 

Now for those thoughtful Canadians who've arrived here by invitation or coercion (take your pick), you know darn well I've been paying attention to the scuttlebutt that's been going on in and around the GTA and Southern Ontario.

"Where's Rochester?" 

"Why would we want to take an expensive boat ride to Rochester when we have everything we'd ever hope to want here in T.O.?" 

"Howz this going to save me time... or money?" 

"I never go to museums and can catch a Major League Baseball game in a controlled environment instead of freezing and/or roasting my butt off in some outdoor ballpark with Minor League teams."

"Doesn't Rochester have a higher crime rate than Toronto?"

"I heard somewhere that you people actually pay money to eat something called 'A Garbage Plate'.  That isn't true, is it?"

"They say there's a big shopping mall in downtown Rochester just like the Eaton Centre."

"How long does it take to walk from the ferry to downtown?"
 

And being the truthful ambassador that I am, you Canadians know I tell it like it is.  Much to the dismay of the local Tourism people (yes, there's actually a Rochester 'Tourism' Bureau here;  Lord Knows they have their jobs cut out for themselves, but that's the breaks for promoting some backwater burg).

"Be quiet, you bonehead.  Don't tell them THAT.  Yes, it's true but THEY don't need to know that."

So for the elucidation of Canadians, here are the answers to the above question as demande...... uhhhh, REQUESTED... by the local Ferry Cheerleaders:

"It's between Buffalo and Syracuse, but we're different than those cities.  We have a river in the middle of OUR city."

"Yes, but don't you want to see how Rochester does it?"

"Well... it's not going to save you either time or money, but think of what a novel experience it will be."

"There's nothing like braving the fickle elements to bring an old-time authenticity to the game."

"Well, yes it does... but as long as you stick to the recommended Tourist Trail you should be OK."

"Yes, it's absolutely true!  We get a big kick out of eating hot dogs, gelatinous beans and congealed grease all set in an environment where your shoes stick to the floors and drunks are blowing lunch in the corner!  It's part of the charm!  Whatta hoot!"

"Oh yes, inDEED!  It's called Midtown Plaza and there might even be two or three stores open for your browsing pleasure.  If not, be sure to catch our Sixties-era Clock of the World as the papier-mâché figures wobble to canned music... it's a Must See attraction!"

"Walk from the ferry to downtown?  Well, let's see.  At a brisk 3-4 miles per hour... ohhh, about two hours.  But wouldn't you rather take one of our luxurious city busses?  That way, it'll only take half an hour and you'll get to see a perfectly nondescript city street and an uplifting massive cemetery."

There.  You locals happy?

If the truth be told, I rather like the City of Rochester Mayor, Bill Johnson.  No, really, I do.  He's done about as much as is humanly possible to keep this tired old Smugtown from sliding into decay and anybody who stands up to the Republican Establishment of Monroe County - despite losing his butt in a county election for County Executive - deserves more than mere faint praise for doing so.

Having said that, ol' Bill has publicly announced that "... if those people have nothing good to say about Rochester, they should shut up". 

Well... OK.  Ever one to follow sage advice, I've said about all that needs to be said about this project and I've curtailed my rancor in the local haunts.

However Mr. Johnson, since I'm the one renting disk space for this website, I believe that gives me freedom to speak my mind, thank you very much.   And if it goes against popular local opinion... "I'm sorry;  am I supposed to care?"  After all, I have no vested interest in the way of a job, income... even shopping locally... to worry about whether I join the rest of those desperate locals who're clutching at any harebrained scheme to save their crumbling economy as well as insular and isolated way of life.

Remember?  I'm that Native with a university degree and 20+ years IT experience who was told there were 'no jobs available' between 1996 and 1999 and it's time to repay the favour.  I'm supporting the Rochester business community at a time when it needs help  the way as it supported me when I needed help.  That's fair, isn't it?

How's that go?  "What goes around, comes around"?

Just call me your Native Canadian Bearer of Glad News and Tidings.  The writing is most definitely on the wall.

And to those curious Rochester area residents:  If you want a popular opinion, go ask your local Ferry Cheerleaders.

And  if you don't want an honest opinion, don't ask me.

There's gonna be some blood here in the coming months and I can assure you, it won't be mine.

ANNETTE LEIN staff photographer

Against a background of the Toronto skyline, workers prepare to pour cement into a vehicle ramp being constructed for the Spirit of Ontario ferry. As of April 8, the ramp was the only structure being built for the ferry at the Toronto port, prompting concern in several quarters that the port won’t be ready for the craft.

Rochester to Toronto: "Get with the program."

Toronto to Rochester: "WHAT program???"

24 APRIL 2004

The excitement is at an all-time fevered pitch; the anticipation grows with each passing hour.

The locals are scoping out the best vantage to catch the first glimpse of a slick five-storey ship as it glides in on the eastern horizon of Lake Ontario.

The Breeze is very nearly upon us.  In a scant three days, years of planning and barges of cash will cruise into the fetid Port of Rochester as videocams and satellite broadcasting record the historic event.  One can almost imagine the number of babes in arms who'll be in attendance so they can tell their kids and grandkids, "I was there".

Yup.  It's an event all right.  Right here in River City.  Hopefully somebody's got the marching band all tuned to greet The Breeze as she slides effortlessly into berth.  Why, even the Good 'Ol Boy Network will undoubtedly be there to toast the arrival of the Great Panacea to this communities woes.

By now, the Faithful Reader has discerned the slightest hint of skepticism of the author.  Yes, The Breeze will be a remarkable ship.  Unquestionably, initial ticket sales will be brisk and from the response of the first few months of operation, The Breeze will have every look of a winner. 

None of this is relevant.  None of this matters.  As the mantra goes: It's The Bottom Line That Counts.

Here's an astonishing revelation which will bring the presses to a grinding halt: Businesses need to make money to be successful.  (And once again, the native canadian baffles those with a keen sense of the obvious.)

The Breeze could be packed solid for every day for the next six months on every trip to and from Toronto.  It could receive gushing accolades from every passenger who made the trip.  And it could be the niftiest way to cross a lake that ever took to the Great Lakes waters.

But unless SUSTAINED ridership is realized over the course of several YEARS -- enough to cover the operating costs and maintenance -- all the hoopla and balloons in the world won't keep the ship or service afloat.  This ain't no trolling boat with Dad's Evinrude slapped on the back; this is a massive, floating extravaganza of state-of-the-art technology which costs a King's ransom to operate... and even more if it doesn't.  The owners and shareholders make ZERO dollars every minute The Breeze sits idle and indeed, LOSE money every time the ship is tied up.

The trick will be to make sure there are enough passengers to offset the mountainous costs of (1) paying for the thing and (2) paying for the overhead and standard operating expenses.  My common sense logic tells me if New York City (instead of Rochester) was located on the southern shore of Lake Ontario and Toronto was only reachable by an arduous five-hour drive via clogged two-lane highways, then The Breeze would have a very promising business future.

It is not and it doesn't.

Two years.  That's it.  Then watch the accusations fly.

And Toronto, you and I know each other well enough to know this native canadian tells it like he sees it.  'Team player'?  Not here.  If it's a boneheaded idea, doesn't matter how many Ferry Cheerleaders there are on either side of the pond, it's still a boneheaded idea.

Two years.  You gawkers better get out there and grab as many tickets as you can WHILE you can. 

The Breeze will still be floating long after the business has sunk.

27 APRIL 2004

Oh, the suspense.  The anticipation is agonizing.  The talking heads on the local cable news channel are absolutely BUZZING with reports that... at long last...  like the Second Coming of Christ Himself... somewhere around NINE O'CLOCK this VERY morning... that glorious day of reckoning is upon us.

The Breeze slides into the polluted Port of Rochester today with the locals fairly wetting themselves with feverish excitement.  It's an Event.  Right here in River City.

And for those who don't believe a word of any of this, right in front of our very eyes the local cable news channel is going to have cameras broadcasting LIVE COVERAGE of The Breeze as it makes its gargantuan entry into first sight.

Now Toronto, that's your cue.  Now you just better get the gang at CityTV along with The Star, The Sun, The Globe and Mail... and oh yes, the folks at CBC will no doubt want to pre-empt programming to make sure there's a LIVE SHOT of a Fast Ferry as it makes its entry from Nowhere NY at the foot of Cherry Street.

"Yah.. yah... get a Toronto Harbour fireboat or two out there with the hoses shooting up a welcome.  Shove Hizzoner on a platform with the old Welcome To Toronto banner... uhh.. yah... maybe we can get CityTV to send out a truck with a satellite dish on top and that oughtta do it.  Yahhh.. those Rochester tourists will squeal with delight and think they've died and gone to heaven.... they really eat that 'Special Treatment' **** up".

Hmm. Question:  Why didn't The Breeze make its Grand Entry at Toronto?

Could it be there wouldn't be as much perceived excitement in Toronto... which would throw a miserably cold wet blanket on the Suits at CATS who've been tossing around how 'thrilled' people will be upon the arrival of this floating Vegas venue?

Might there not be the crowds which are a requisite for those photo-ops which give the impression anybody really gives a damn?

Are the Suits at CATS afraid that Southern Ontario and the GTA aren't gushing platitudes about the prospect of taking an expensive boat ride to someplace called Rochester ("Now... where's Rochester again?")?

Is there some inkling of worry that the residents of the northern terminus of The Breeze STILL haven't been scrambling by the anticipated thousands to book passage on a ship which arrives in less then six hours... and STILL hasn't set a date for the maiden crossing?

Would a measly turnout in Hogtown send waves of worry over the investors who've bought into the hopelessly massaged data which promises a chocked full Ferry each and every time it crosses the lake?

Why didn't The Breeze makes its Grand Entry at Toronto?

Is there any possibility there's umpteen times more excitement about the Ferry in the Rochester area than in the GTA?

Is there any possibility there'll be umpteen times more passengers FROM the Rochester area going TO Toronto than Toronto passengers going TO Rochester?

Oh dear.  A case of the Sweats and Worries at the Public Relations meetings.  "If you want to give the impression people are ga-ga over this project, you damn well better have The Breeze pull into Rochester FIRST.  Otherwise, those damn Canadians are just going to sit in their offices going about their daily jobs and what's THAT going to say to the investors?"

Gee.  Is it really crunch time ALREADY?

There's a terrific German word for deriving malicious enjoyment at the misfortunes of others.  It's called schadenfreude.

Now, never let it be said your plucky webmaster is a cold-hearted compassionless soul who gleefully hopes for bad luck to befall well thought-out business ventures.  And the key adjectives are 'well thought-out'.

The Fast Ferry project is anything BUT 'well thought-out'.  Yes, the initial sales will be brisk.  Yes, the first-time passenger will be awestruck at the novelty of it all.  And yes, it most certainly will be a unique way to get to and from Toronto.

(Oh, by the way... you Rochesterians DID know about the EXACT same concept being planned for a Lake Erie Fast ferry from Pennsylvania to Port Dover, Norfolk County Ontario... DIDN'T you?  And the EXACT same concept being planned for Lake Michigan from Milwaukee to Muskegon??)

Have a look:  http://www.norfolkcounty.on.ca/Contribute/doingbusiness/project/ferry.aspx

(Hmmm.   That picture of the Fast Ferry on Norfolk County's website looks... strangely familiar.)

Background | FAQs | Community Champions | What's New | Next Steps

Imagine a high-speed catamaran -- the likes of which never seen before on the Great Lakes -- crusing into Port Dover harbour and letting off 300 passengers. Norfolk County is working closely with officials in Erie, Pennsylvania, to realize this dream.

A fast ferry feasibility study was completed in September 2003, in cooperation with the Erie-Western Pennsylvania Port Authority. The study report that, should a passenger ferry service be re-established between the two ports, more than 750,000 passengers and 330,000 autos could be diverted per year by 2010.

Based on ridership projections calculated on a review of 1,200 origin-destination zone comparisons, revenues are estimated to exceed US$12 million in the ramp-up year, accelerating to US$28 million by 2010. The financial analysis of the preferred vessel -- a 71 meter (230-foot) fast ferry -- indicates a healthy rate of return on investment, assuming major capital infrastructure is in place.

Norfolk County Council has approved a series of recommendations including the establishment of a Lake Erie Fast Ferry Steering Committee and action teams to advance the ferry project quickly. Ferry dock infrastructure, transportation links, economic impacts, business plans and harbour governance models are the subject of this next round of action steps.

This part of our website provides detailed information on this project, including background, frequently asked questions, next steps, and other news.

Other Great Lakes Fast Ferry Services in Development:

Milwaukee-Muskegon (Lake Michigan): www.muskegoncarferry.com

Toronto-Rochester (Lake Ontario): www.spiritofontario.com/hmpg.htm

Oh well.  So much for uniqueness.  Sure looks like SOME salesperson was working hard for that signing bonus.

Yup... a case of schadenfreude to be sure.  Let's just call it comeuppance to commonsenseless data junkies in great suits who've once again proven they're clueless to the wants and needs of their targeted audiences.

And there's nothing quite so satisfying as watching the 'little people' stick it to 'em by ignoring their grandiose and hopelessly ill-conceived pet projects.  Sort of like the attention-starved playground loudmouth begging, "watch ME... watch ME"... and everybody turns their backs.

What deliciously appropriate Just Desserts to pompous twits with Napoleon Complexes who fairly scream to be ignored by those with an iota of common sense.

I can't wait.  I just can't wait.  So I'd better do it now:

I told you so.

There.  I feel better.

Now, let's see.  A full-paged ad in the Toronto Star "To the CATS Fast Ferry folks in Rochester...."

Stay tuned, Dear Reader.  This fiasco shall NOT be permitted a quiet demise.

08 MAY 2004

A wrinkle.  An annoyance.  Sort of like a kid unwrapping the latest and greatest Christmas toy... and there's no batteries around.

Toronto.  We need to talk.

Now you guys haven't been getting with the program since the its inception.  There's a gleaming hulk of a boat sitting here in our backyard... with locals gushing enthusiastically and craning their necks to catch a snapshot of the biggest thing to fill the Genesee since the report of Kodak sewage tainting the fish.

We see the pictures.  We read the news bites.  And by all accounts, Toronto hasn't bounced as high nor squealed as loudly as the local folks in the Rochester area.

Bumpkins or not, the local Rochester community are starting to remove the rose-coloured glasses and read the writing on the wall and it sure doesn't appear the Gardiner and Lakeshore are backing up with thousands of cars waiting to board The Breeze.  For that matter, there's not even a place for the The Breeze to dock.

<Worry. Angst.>

You know that first feeling of realizing something MIGHT be wrong.... I mean, something might REALLY be wrong?  That sinking feeling that comes after a giddy high... to coin a trite phrase "dashed hopes"?

The realization that maybe... just maybe... a grievous error in judgment has been made?

Yeah.  THAT feeling.

Now in the finest Rochester tradition of denial, initial waves of cold sweat are making their way across the brows of local politicians, business leaders and investors.

<Worry. Angst.>

Local news media are filming locals whining about the lackluster enthusiasm coming from the GTA.  "They need us".  "They're losing business".  "They should have been ready".

The Blame Game has begun.  No date has been set for the maiden voyage.  Tickets are being refunded or postponed to a later date.  No schedule has been set up.  The Toronto terminal isn't built and what will serve as a temporary terminal is arriving on truck trailers waiting to be hooked up like Merle's camper in the backyard.

Oh, this doesn't look good.

First the boat shears into a dock in one of the best ports of the world.  Then it sits in the Port of Rochester with CATS flashing lasers in its side to keep the locals amused and hopefully interested.  At this point, losing momentum could be disastrous.  Even though the entire concept had serious flaws from the first juice-and-bagel meeting tossing around the idea to the latest installment payment on the thing, now that The Breeze is visible folks are STILL convinced of the possibility of an expensive and redundant way to get to Toronto.

Except... Toronto isn't showing much interest in rushing to have some service bring a few dozen or so daily tourists to the glistening attraction known as the Cherry Street docks.  Can you imagine?

I mean, Rochester has cab companies jostling for the exclusive contract to park their banged-up hulks in Charlotte... at the ready to whisk the daily hundreds of Torontonians to that fabulous destination known as Downtown Rochester.  The local public bus company has already planned to alter its city schedule to accommodate the arrival of the hoards of travelers disembarking from the scheduled arrivals of The Breeze.

Sandwich shops and bars in the Charlotte area of the Ferry terminal have the gingham tablecloths pressed and 'Welcome Canadians (Spend Money)' scrawled on posterboards in windows.

All dressed up.  And nowhere to go.

<Worry.  Angst.>

Diversify.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket.  There are no guarantees in life.

Strange, isn't it?  One would think that a local community which has depended for decades on the jobs and income primarily from one company would have learned... something... from the highly publicized fall from grace of that local company.   And the Fest Ferry mania has spread to the entire region around the Rochester area.  Towns and villages have grand plans of waves of Canadian tourists clamouring to explore the sights.

Realty companies have been on camera bubbling over the prospects of Canadians descended upon the region... flush with 30%-discounted Canadian dollars... cooing enthusiastically about buying vacation homes.

Never mind the realtors don't know the difference between Muskoka and the Kawarthas... and care even less... they've bought into all the hype.

Now we're being told regular service of The Breeze won't even begin before the middle of June.  At the earliest.

This project has had FIASCO written all over it since its inception.  A bit... no, simply an iota... of common sense and logic would have shown the thing was as financially viable as reversing the flow of the Niagara River.

And now that the first indication of reality has entered the picture, doubts are making the scene.  Doubts about the future of the Ferry.  Doubts about the continuous influx of Canadian tourists.  Doubts about the credibility of the project organizers.  Doubts about the economic impact which has been promised by those who have about as much knowledge of Canada and Canadians as they do  Sri Lankans.

And those of us who (1) are Canadian and (2) live in the Rochester area are quietly shaking our heads asking the question, "Just what the hell do you think we were talking about for the past three years?"

The Blame Game has begun.  Little fits of annoyance here.  Outbursts on the local media there.

The strains of the Great Blame Chorus are getting louder with each day the laser-lighted ferry sits generating ZERO dollars.  Soon, Gentle Reader, those strains will turn to a cacophony of  wails and accusations.  Very soon.

Except in Toronto.  No Fast Ferry to Rochester?  Gee, that's too bad... wanna go see the Jays play the New York at the SkyDome?  What's going on at Air Canada Centre?

Rochester ferry was a bust?  Sorry to hear that... feel like catching the TTC to go out to dinner?  French, Italian, Greek, Portuguese, West Indian, Vietnamese, Mexican, Vegan, Ethiopian, African or Ukrainian?  I had Malaysian for lunch.

Have to drive to Rochester because the ferry service never happened?  No thanks.  The Home Show's on at the Convention Centre...  they've got free underground parking and you can buy your admission at the garage entrance instead of waiting in line.

No Rochester tourists this week?  Oh well... that means more rooms available for the National Convention at the Delta Chelsea.

They're dismantling the temporary terminal at Cherry Street?

Who cares?

<Worry.  Angst.>

10 MAY 2004

Several local area people have taken the time to express their opinions of the views found on this page.  And a few have even been carefully thought out... even printable.  And thanks to all who took the time to respond.

In the annals of history, there have always been incidents where a small but vocal minority have been proven correct in the face of mass public support which has labled them 'critics' and 'naysayers'.  These people are usually ignored, scoffed at or told to shut up.

Enter the great world of the internet.  Where every curmudgeon has their day and instant access to anybody with a computer and an ISP account.  Worldwide.

It's a responsibility, to be sure.  Anytime a view or position is presented to an audience, there's a responsibility of respectfully conveying one's thoughts and opinions in a manner which is both acceptable and reasonable.

To date, the previous postings have poked fun and illuminated the foibles and follies of a community which - by all accounts - is struggling to come to grips with a moribund economy, escalating unemployment, increasing crime and a rapidly widening rift between the have's and have-not's.

No, all is not rosey in RochesterLand.  Does that mean cut them a break and stoically pretend big projects are the answer to help fix an area's woes?

Hell no.

Let's assign blame where blame is deserved.  That would rest squarely upon the shoulders of local residents who've elected officials who've joined the ranks of the proud tradition of complacency, provincialism and conservative policies.  There's no excuse for conventional thinkers.  And if the residents of the Rochester area lack imagination and creativity to solve the issues that face their community... well, as the saying goes, "People get the government they deserve".

Tried and tired ploys at attracting visitors to the area have largely failed.  Yeah... yeah... there's a nifty museum or two... Big Woo.  Show me any community the size of the Rochester area WITHOUT a nifty museum or two.

Oh... there's a new ball park (still bleeding red ink years after it opened), but show me any community the size of the Rochester area WITHOUT some sort of new sports venue.

Shopping malls?  Art galleries?  Unique eateries?  People are supposed to spend hundreds of dollars traveling to experience THAT?

Pffft. The only thing that's been shown is: the majority of local voters haven't bothered to venture to the World Outside Monroe County.  And I'm not talking about a perilous voyage ALL THE WAY to Niagara Falls.

Anybody know much about St.Catharines other than "it's the first big bridge" on the way to Toronto?  How about - dare I suggest - a trip to the Grand River area of southwestern Ontario?

No, of course not.  That would involve curiosity and imagination... both of which are in short supply in the Rochester area.  It's far easier to be among the familiar than it is to venture to the unknown.  Ask the typical Rochester area resident to describe how to get to the SkyDome and they'll run to the AAA for a TripTik.  Ask the typical Rochester area resident to describe how to get to the Ivy Lea Bridge on the St.Lawrence River and out comes the GPS.

Not everybody is imbued with a sense of direction, that's true.

But considering these destinations are an easy day's drive from the area, it's not like some expedition to Machu Picchu.  Especially when there are four-lane expressways right to the locations.  Taking off and exploring the backroads and off-the-beaten track communities takes a back seat to the agony of crabgrass.

Jumping in a car and wandering around doesn't hold the appeal of dance recitals, school plays and soccer matches.

Gaining knowledge from traveling is a waste of time compared with the Saturday cruises to local garage sales.

And meeting people with different values and priorities doesn't hold a candle to mingling with those with OUR values and priorities.  The locals are really thrown for a loop on that one.

Nope.  Blame the politicians.  Blame the business leaders.  It's their fault.  They're the ones who're clueless.  They're the ones who've turned the Rochester area into some smug backwater burg in Upstate New York.

Only... just how did these boneheads get elected to their positions in the first place?  Divine intervention?  A lucky toss of the coin?

Nope.  The residents of the area sent them to do their conventional bidding.  And so they are. 

And so it goes.

13 MAY 2004

Students, please double-click on Calculator.  We're about to enter the convoluted world of the Business Data Junkie.

Local media is reporting the following:

• 650,000 passengers are needed on a yearly basis in order to keep the Fast Ferry afloat.

• CATS   estimates  an annual 750,000 to 1,000,000 passengers will use The Breeze.

First, we'll breakdown the 650,000 figure to a manageable number.

650,000 divided by 52 weeks per year = 12,500 passengers per week on average.

12,500 divided by 7 days per week = 1,786 passenger per day on average.

The Breeze capacity:  774 passengers , 238 cars

Two daily crossings from Rochester or Toronto (ie. four trips across the lake) 1,786 daily passengers divided by 4 = 447 passengers per trip on average.

At four daily crossings to and from Toronto, that means... at the very bare minimum... the MUST be NO less than 447 passengers.  Each car requires at least one passenger... and presumably the profit margin is higher per car than per passenger (that's where the convoluted aspect comes in).

But strictly speaking only about passengers, let's convert to percentage of capacity:

447 / 774 = x /100 = 57.75% of passenger capacity.

All right.  Let's pause and take a look at the numbers.... Corporate Data Junkies eat this sort of stuff up.

57.75% capacity... EACH and EVERY time The Breeze shoves off.  447 passengers plus a smattering of vehicles.  Every single day of the year.

Or else... the line on the profit graph starts to point downward.  Remember, these figures are all based on the BARE MINIMUM of ridership numbers in order to keep the venture from sinking into a morass of red ink.

1.) Are there 447 people from the GTA and/or Southern Ontario who swarm into the Rochester area on a daily basis?

2.) And if so, how many of them are presently driving, flying or taking the train to arrive?

3.) And out of those using other modes of transportation, how many would switch from, say... their car... to using The Breeze?

Let's say the ARE 2,000 Canadians who flood into the Greater Rochester area on a daily basis ("You there... please contain your guffaws to yourself..").  Would more than 20% of them see the merits (if any) of taking an expensive and - no faster - method of arriving and departing from the area?

Yes??  No??  That's a question which will be answered within twelve months.  And dutifully reported here.

All right, students... a recap.   To this point, we've only been talking about the BARE MINIMUM of numbers required to keep the Fast Ferry project financially viable as a business.  There is no room for error here; with soaring fuel prices, increasing maintenance costs (the thing hasn't even made its maiden voyage and it needs US$1 million worth of repairs to fix defective head gaskets), plus the standard unforeseen costs (still haven't figured out what sort of a dent hitting a 4-6 foot thick chunk of ice weighing several thousand pounds at 40+ miles per hour will do to a hull)... it looks as if operating The Breeze will be no breeze.

Students; please turn to Chapter Two - 'The CATS Estimates of Paying Passengers'

The folks at CATS  estimate  a paying passenger figure of 750,000 to 1,000,000 per year.  We've done the math above, let's just plug in the new figures.  To be fair, let's assume the low end of the CATS estimate:

750,000 divided by 52 weeks per year = 14,424 passengers per week on average.

14,424 divided by 7 days per week = 2,061 passenger per day on average.

The Breeze capacity:  774 passengers , 238 cars

Two daily crossings from Rochester or Toronto (ie. four trips across the lake) 2,061 daily passengers divided by 4 = 516 passengers per trip on average.

Now let's convert to percentage of capacity:

516 / 774 = x /100 = 66.66% of passenger capacity

Not a huge difference from the average bare minimum of 57.75%, you say?  Only 69 more passengers on each and every trip across the Lake?  Not to worry?

Wrong.  In terms of estimates reaching the 1,000,000 mark, 69 is a very precarious number... it may not seem like a formidable challenge, but when the monthly numbers just aren't showing up, 69 can mean the difference between filing a manifest list ... or filing papers for Chapter 11.

Please close your calculators and let's take a look at the situation as it presently stands, shall we?

1.) No date has been set for a maiden voyage of a Fast Ferry which has been more than four years in the making.

2.) The ship has not yet been accepted by CATS and won't be until all the bugs are worked out... like the projected $1 million price tag to replace the defective head gaskets on the engines.

3.) A novice Toronto-phile would be able to know the City of Toronto - the folks in that neat-looking City Hall on Nathan Philips Square - and the folks at the Toronto Port Authority - the folks responsible for overseeing the development of the Toronto Port facilities - just plain don't get along.

Fast Ferry to Rochester?

Toronto Port Authority: "Yes, of course".

Toronto City Hall: "What for?"

And since the Toronto City Hall controls more than just purse strings, not having the full endorsement of the Toronto City Council is not an enviable position for CATS to be facing.

Regardless of plastering Union Station with advertising.

4.) Pre-sales of tickets on the ferry have been promising... even though the dates of travel remain in question.  That's just ducky.  It's also meaningless at this point as we've just determined by our exercises in averages above.

Consistent ridership is the sole determining factor to this business venture for without steady... and indeed, growing... passenger numbers, all the initial excitement in the world won't keep the service afloat.

And that also, will be dutifully reported here.

5.) Local media has made the arduous excursion ALL THE WAY to Toronto filming area residents on the street and using the TTC subway with reactions to news of the Fast Ferry ranging from indifference to total ignorance of the service.  A few have ventured a haphazard "Sure, I'd try it" but by and large, the response in Toronto has been lukewarm at best.

Witness the cobbled together 'temporary' terminal at the foot of Cherry Street.  If the GTA and Southern Ontario were wildly enthusiastic about the prospect of taking a dedicated service to Rochester, doesn't it stand to reason there'd be a rush to construct a permanent and gleaming structure to receive The Breeze and its passengers?

Especially in the largest city in Canada?

This concludes today's lesson on Corporate Data Junkies And Their Fanciful Projections.  As homework, please consider the following:

1.) In a community where the top employer has publicly announced yet another 15,000 of its employees will be laid off within the next two years... some 20-25% of its workforce... is it reasonable to assume that more - or fewer - residents of that community will (a) have the disposable income to whip up to Toronto using an expensive method of travel and (b) suddenly see the light and begin to flock to Toronto in significantly higher numbers than at present?

2.) Is it even remotely possible local community leaders are clutching at straws in a bid to put on a brave and happy smile in the face of impending economic problems the likes of which have rarely been seen in recent memory?

3.) In the 'completely unfathomable' scenario of the Fast Ferry project going belly up, what happens to all the money which has been spent on building a highly specialized terminal along with the public funds which have been loaned or granted to the organizers of this venture?  Do the taxpayers simply shrug and say, "oh well" and move on to The Next Big Thing?

4.) And should the project tank, please compile a list of who will be blamed in advance.  Toronto... for not buying enthusiastically into this venture?  Skyrocketing fuel prices which were given scant recognition?  A wildly fluctuating international currency exchange rate which is a primary factor in patrons deciding between driving or using a completely optional method of travel?

Or the Ferry organizers themselves for assuming the rest of the world... the ones who're being counted on to support this project... are as entrenched in a fictitious world as they are?

(And yes, of course... extra points will be given to those who know Toronto consists of more than just Yonge Street and Harbourfront.)

In our next chapter, we'll be taking a look at Corporate Spin Meisters and Their Effect on The Good 'Ol Boy Network.

You won't want to miss that.