Page Twenty-Three  

16 JULY 2005

No need to read between the lines:

76º | Hi 85º / Lo 72º |

Ferry on course to leave its rocky first year behind Jeffrey Blackwell Staff writer (July 16, 2005) — Rick Piendel's wife drops him off at the terminal at the Port of Rochester so he can ride the ferry. One of his distributors picks him up at the terminal in Toronto. In between, he spends the trip getting work done. "For me, it is going to be perfect," said Piendel, an area product manager for Blaser Swisslube who travels to Toronto twice a month. (Yes, indeed!  For the handful of passengers who travel between Toronto and Rochester on bi-monthly business trips, taking the ferry is perfect.  Think those few dozen passengers will keep the ferry operation afloat?) JAMIE GERMANO staff photographer The ferry’s first two weeks of 2005 service have seen moderate ridership and good mechanical performance. The relaunch of ferry service between Rochester and Toronto just completed its second week of operation. Officials from Bay Ferries Great Lakes, the company managing the ferry for the city, said ridership has been moderate, ranging between 150 and 400 passengers a trip. (Remember the city of Rochester estimate of 1,056 passengers per day?  They're already behind and the first month of re-service hasn't even completed.  See below for the entry I made on June 30.) But for the most part, the ship has been on schedule, has performed well mechanically and has left customers satisfied. "We are very pleased with the progress we are seeing," said Don Cormier, Bay Ferries vice president of operations and safety management. "I currently think we are delivering on safe, efficient and reliable transportation." Forgetting the past  (Don't they wish?) Piendel, of Parma, has already sailed once on the ferry and is planning another trip next week. That is the kind of news Cormier and city officials like to hear. But the ferry's operators know that the business is still in its infancy and must work to build a successful track record and its customer base. The Cat, officially named The Spirit of Ontario, can carry up to 774 passengers and 238 cars. It has yet to sell out or even come close in its first two weeks this summer. One reason might be that potential customers are waiting to see whether the Cat will be reliable transportation. Several times last year, passengers were stranded in Toronto and forced to stay overnight in a hotel or find another way home. Customers also were left with worthless tickets when the former operators ceased operations after 80 days. Many of those customers received refunds, but the damage to the ferry's reputation was done. In February, the city bought the vessel for $32 million at a federal foreclosure auction. Before the launch, there was trouble with the engines and the ship's computer navigation system, which had to be fixed. Both the city and the management of Bay Ferries are hoping people will forget the past. "We need to expect it will take a little time to nurture the credibility," Cormier said. "We can't establish the business in two weeks." Amit Batabyal, an economics professor at Rochester Institute of Technology, said establishing a successful track record early is important. "I think a lot of people are quite leery as to whether this plane will fly," he said. "So far, things have been smooth sailing, and that is a very positive thing for the ferry. That's what needs to happen, because the last thing you need at this point in time is more problems." Ridership numbers Knowing how many people are riding the ferry week to week could be difficult because Bay Ferries, a private company, is not releasing specific ridership numbers to the public. The company is responsible for all aspects of running the service, including developing budgets, securing insurance, marketing the service, hiring employees and managing all ticket and reservation systems. It also is responsible for reporting to the Rochester Ferry Co., which was created by the city to oversee the ferry's operation. Benjamin Douglas, president of Rochester Ferry and a city councilman, said he had not requested specific ridership numbers from Bay Ferries, but probably would in August. He said he saw no reason why those figures could not be released then. The Democrat and Chronicle also filed a request for ridership numbers from the city under the state's Freedom of Information Law. The city is required to respond to the request next week.  (We can't WAIT to see the figures.) What Cormier did say was that the ship's largest crowd was 400 people. The smallest was 150. The busiest days were Fridays and the weekends. The softest days were mid-week. The good news, he said, was the large number of Canadian license plates seen on the ship. "It shows us there is a demand for Canadians coming this way." Marketing Bay Ferries decided not to heavily market the service before the launch. But efforts to market are under way on both sides of the lake. On Tuesday in Toronto, the company is sponsoring an open house for the Canadian travel industry and local media. The Greater Rochester Visitors Association and the Finger Lakes Tourism Alliance are also participating and will set up booths inside the ship promoting regional attractions. Cormier said his staff and the company's Portland, Maine, marketing firm are working on radio spots and direct-mail advertising in both the Toronto and Rochester markets, and ads are already running in Toronto newspapers. The company is also reaching out to businesses with travel packages aimed at people, such as Piendel, who regularly travel to Toronto. Ed Hall, president of the visitors association, said he was confident in Bay Ferries' ability to market the service because of its successful operations between Maine and Nova Scotia, and two other conventional ferries in eastern Canada. The company has been in business since 1941. "Things are starting to come together," Hall said. "This floating travel show is a good indication. I think it will be well-received and well-attended." Business owners in the port area also hope the marketing efforts are successful. Rick Palumbo, an owner of the LDR Char Pit in Charlotte, said he is hoping for the kind of jump in business he saw last year when the ferry was operating. "We really got in a lot of Canadians," he said. "We are hoping it will generate that same kind of tourism as well this year. It's still too early to tell." Elaine Hanford, owner of The Chestnut Tree gift shop at the Rochester ferry terminal, said she has seen an increase in foot traffic inside her shop since the relaunch of the ferry. "It will be interesting to see what happens in the fall when the weather is not so great and the ferry is still going," Hanford said. (Reality Alert!!  First hints of seasonal doubt are being bandied about!  It's like, "Gee... I wonder if fewer people will use the ferry when the weather turns crappy?"  And who says the people involved with the ferry operation are brain-dead hangers-on who'll believe the first snake-oil salesman in town?) Cormier understands the public and media interest in the fate of the high-speed ferry. Problems in a transportation service can pop up at any time, as anybody who travels by airline knows all too well, he said. What will make a difference is how the company addresses the problems, Cormier said. "We could have a problem tomorrow," he said. "It is how you deal with them and how it impacts the commitment you've made to your customers. I think there needs to be a realistic expectation from everyone in terms that something could happen at any time. And it should not be catastrophic and destroy public confidence because the ship is 10 or 15 minutes late." JBLACKWELL@DemocratandChronicle.com

Where to start?  The writing's not only on the wall, it's in the newspaper.

"It has yet to sell out or even come close in its first two weeks this summer. One reason might be that potential customers are waiting to see whether the Cat will be reliable transportation."

Well, THAT'S not good news.  If the peak travel season can't 'sell out or even come close', what's that say about the OFF-peak season?  Yes, ONE reason MIGHT be that public skepticism is keeping 'em away by droves, but I suspect the MAIN reasons are (1) it's too expensive and (2) it's no faster than driving to Toronto or Rochester.  Another reason MIGHT be lack of demand.  Gee.  That's a familiar theme.

Don Cormier has admitted the highest passenger manifest has been 400 and the lowest, 150.  That's not going to attain the city of Rochester's business plan estimate of 1,056 per day.  City planners were wrong.  Again.  The figures the city pitched in the Ferry Sequel are not being met.  The revenue the city pitched in the Ferry Sequel are not being met.

"Knowing how many people are riding the ferry week to week could be difficult because Bay Ferries, a private company, is not releasing specific ridership numbers to the public." 

"(Rochester Ferry President Benjamin Douglas) said he saw no reason why those figures could not be released then." 

"The Democrat and Chronicle also filed a request for ridership numbers from the city under the state's Freedom of Information Law."

Yeah, THIS is going to go over big at Bay Ferries.  Cormier has already said he's NOT going to release passenger numbers.  Now the local fish-wrapper is going to file legal papers to DEMAND the passenger numbers be released.  Not exactly a friendly relationship in the making, is it?

Uh-oh.  The Mohawk guy might be onto something.

"Ed Hall, president of the (Rochester) visitors association, said he was confident in Bay Ferries' ability to market the service because of its successful operations between Maine and Nova Scotia, and two other conventional ferries in eastern Canada."

Now this is a frightening revelation.  The President of the Greater Rochester Visitors Association, Ed Hall, uses the dubious logic of "It worked there, so it'll work here".

Ed, as we've all seen in these past twenty-one webpages, what plays in Peoria may not even open in Rochester.  That's to say, such a highly specialized service is highly dependent on a variety of factors which must ALL be the same or it cannot be said the same result is guaranteed.  "He was confident.... because of its successful operations between Maine and Nova Scotia".  This, from the head of the local Visitors Association... not some hackneyed group of Good 'Ol Boys who get together with some 'real keen' idea for a fast ferry between Toronto and Rochester.

Any question now why the ferry initiative is doomed?   With simple-minded logic being used here, it's no wonder a multi-million dollar business is going to lose out.  And taxpayers are going to foot the bill for the stupidity of people earning twice as much as they are.

"The good news, (Cornier) said, was the large number of Canadian license plates seen on the ship. "It shows us there is a demand for Canadians coming this way."

No, that's not from the Good News Department; that's from the Department of Redundancy Department.

What's a 'large number of Canadian license plates'?  (Oh, my apologies.. 'we' don't release numbers.) "It shows us there is a demand for Canadians coming this way".  Well, yes.. yes, one would expect there to be more Canadian plates on the trip FROM Canada than TO Canada.  And nobody ever said there wouldn't be any demand... regardless of how small... from Canadians traveling to Rochester.

There just isn't enough demand to support the ferry operation.  And our Maritime friend M. Cormier is finding that out.  So is the city of Rochester.  And eventually, so will the public.

Of course; there'll be the occasional business traveler for which the ferry service is ideal.  Ditto for the curious who want a one-time or once-in-a-while unique trip across the lake.  The driving-phobic or airfare-challenged might also hop on board.  These people seem to be the focus of attention in the media and ferry supporter circles but it also paints a very distorted picture of the reality.

And that reality is:  there isn't enough demand to support a service of this magnitude for an extended period of time.

"Both the city and the management of Bay Ferries are hoping people will forget the past."

It's good to see we've got a bunch of comedians running the show.  That really eases MY mind.

18 JULY 2005

Pleading For Dollars.

Monday   July 18, 2005

Rochester skyline Attractions Want Toronto Partners   by Liz Medhin photo by Jeff Hamson Published Jul 17, 2005 "Partner with Rochester." That's the message local businesses are taking on the road, or rather, the water. Fifty-five local attractions will take part in a conference on “The Cat” at Toronto’s Port Tuesday. Bay Ferries has teamed up with the Greater Rochester Visitors Association and The Finger Lakes Tourism Association to give local attractions an audience with 600 Toronto-based hotels, bus tours and media outlets. The George Eastman House is one of the attractions taking part. When the Fast Ferry stopped service last summer, the Eastman House lost business it was counting on. At least 30 motor coach tours that were scheduled last year had to be cancelled. However, since the ferry restarted 3 weeks ago, many of those tours companies have rescheduled. Now the Eastman House is trying to eye even more Toronto traffic. The museum already has package deals with the Women's Hall of Fame in Seneca Falls and the Genesee Country Museum in hopes of capitalizing on the Canadian tourism. It hopes this trip will create packages with Toronto-based museums as well. "Two years ago, before the ferry launched, we drove up, so of course, we didn't have the vessel to show them. So there, it was just sort of a 'wait and see' sort of attitude. And last year, we did participate in some advertising opportunities, and again, it was such a short run for the ferry, we didn't have a chance to see the benefits of it," said Eliza Kozlowski of the Eastman House. This time around promises to be different according to Patti Donoghue of GRVA. "Absolutely we expect that this will result in some partnerships,” she said emphatically. “It's definitely marketing, but definitely some partnerships." Bay Ferries

It's a fine line between 'marketing' and outright 'begging'.  Sure, every community needs to blow its own horn when it comes to tourist and visitor attractions.  But this could just as easily be interpreted as a plea for charity.

'Partnerships'??  Yeah, OK... so what's in it for Toronto?  Why should the homecoming queen agree to go out on a date with the class nerd?

--  +  --

Ah, yes... just got back from another tremendous weekend in Grand River Country.  Those astute travelers to southwestern Ontario know about that larger-than-life region of the province along the Grand River which is home to my reserve of the Six Nations of the Grand River.  Definitely home to me.

Anyway, as I cruised somewhere just below Mach 1 on the 403 and Highway 6, there's no doubt the economy of Grand River Country is exploding.  That's not necessarily good news as the relentless spread of the GTA takes over a pretty nice rural area of Ontario, but people have to live somewhere and with the new Toyota plant being built in Woodstock (can you say, "thousands of  high-paying jobs"?) the new houses are springing up all over the region.  Hamilton's southern reaches are pushing further towards Lake Erie and new expressways are being steam-rolled left and right.

"So??  That's there and this is here."  Just thought I'd save some trouble for some typical Rochesterian reactions to such news of an economy which is not only growing, but thriving.  More suburban sprawl with a paucity of decent paying jobs (ie. $20/hr and up) is not growth.  It's stagnation with a nice yard.  Canadian wages are affording the folks across the dotted line a visibly better standard of living than can be found in Upstate New York, but then... 'wars' tend to be an expensive proposition in more ways than one.

But back to local interests pitching woo to the GTA in a bid to build 'partnerships'.  'Partnerships' are for suits in a boardroom... which is all well and good, but exactly what does that have to do with Mr. and Mrs. Sauga forking over cash for a ticket to ride from T.O. to Rochester?  Once again, in a myopic and unrealistic move, local 'leaders; are banking on the power of the corporate brochure to translate directly into a confirmed reservation on the ferry.

Sure... there'll be greater visibility and no doubt that should spark an interest which will see a few hundred GTA folks hop on the ferry.  Big Woo.  That's not going to save the ferry.

We've been all through the tit-for-tat comparison of attractions which are available right on the doorstep of the residents of Canada's largest metropolitan area so we know a country museum in Genesee County, while a pretty neat place, is so similar to Black Creek Pioneer Village that Toronto area residents can save a lot of time, money and hassles by simply dropping over to Steeles Avenue.

'Partnerships'?  Why?  Toronto doesn't need 'partnerships'.  Rochester needs 'partnerships'.  Correction: the FERRY needs 'partnerships'.  Doesn't it come across as being somewhat disingenuous to be suddenly begging people to see the attractions of the Rochester/Finger Lakes area when it's plainly obvious the real motivation is to boost ferry ridership?  The attractions being touted are nothing new; so why now?  And when the ferry goes under for the final time, will there still be the big push (and budgets) to implore Torontonians to visit the Rochester/Finger Lakes region?

It's a critical and unforgivable error to look at prospective customers as saps who can't see the REAL reason for a sales pitch.  Toronto residents may be many things, but stupid and gullible they are not.

Proof?  Well, from my weekend foray over to the area which local ferry supporters are hoping to target, the recent murder of a 12-year old on the streets of Rochester was what people are talking about.... NOT some new ferry service to Rochester.  A museum for children is all well and good, but when children and grandmothers are being gunned down, THAT'S what sticks in the minds of prospective customers.

And no, Dear Reader, I didn't publicize the news of these tragedies.  The tragedies publicize themselves and some miniscule suburban winery doesn't stand a chance against that sort of publicity.

Neither does a museum of photography, an historic canal or even some hometown theatre production of a Broadway musical which has been off Broadway for years (A Chorus Line just broke GEVA Theatre records.  They could bring in My Fair Lady and still pack 'em in.)

Power to the People.  That's not a request; it's a fact -- because it's entirely up to the public whether the ferry will make it or not.  'Partnership' all you want.  Stuff the racks with brochures of all the fab places in the area.  Toss out coupons for a free drink at the most chic restaurant in Monroe County; it's not going to save the ferry in the long run, but I'll concede that still remains to be seen.

In the meantime, I'll be watching for details from the 'partnership' seekers and what they bring back with them from the Toronto conference.  I've got the Assumption Detection Meter switched on High and will report back here at the first sign of a gross leap of generalization by the Rochester delegation. 

Of course, the only real gauge of any initiative are the actual numbers of passengers who use the ferry.  With respect to the ferry operation, nothing else is relevant.

86º | Hi 90º / Lo 72º |

Wow!  Is the Rochester area ever lucky to have the ferry restarted?  Whatta break!  All those home equity office workers who'll end up hitting the bricks in search of a job can just drop by the ferry terminal and snap up one of the many newly created jobs.  And isn't it fortunate that they'll still be able to hang onto health benefits and a quasi-decent wage?

I wasn't aware Bay Ferries was offering the same benefits as J.P. Morgan Chase but undoubtedly, the workers unable to find a job inside their former employer (or through yet another useless 'job fair') will be tickled pink to find Bay Ferries wages will easily cover the income they've bet the house and car on.

Gee.  Maybe I've been wrong all along.  The well publicized JobsJobsJobs we've been hearing from community 'leaders' as a result of the ferry operation must be having their 'ripple effect' as promised. 

"It'll take time" they say?

Tell that to the J.P. Morgan Chase workers laid off.  Or the Big Yellow Box workers.  Or the workers hanging on to one of the $7/hour 'fully employed' jobs waiting for something that'll pay for more than just the gas and electricity.  Or the university graduates ready to start repaying student loans NOW.  Or the families putting off needed medical treatment until a job with decent health benefits opens up.  Or the homeowners scraping up what they can to pay property taxes.

Yup.  I'm sure they'll be pleased as punch to know the city of Rochester managed to find $32 million to 'invest' in the future of Rochester.  They're already practicing "You want fries with that?".

"It'll take time?"  No doubt the collection departments and agencies are satisfied with that excuse as they ring up the delinquent accounts of laid off workers.  Think the local community 'leaders' will have trouble making THEIR rent or mortgage payments in a few months?

Didn't think so.

20 JULY 2005

Metro Rochester staggers.

Wednesday   July 20, 2005

Kodak Announces More Layoffs   by Dan Smith/Veronica R. Chiesi Published Jul 20, 2005 As part of an accelerated transformation to digital imaging, Kodak plans to cut 7,500 to 10,000 jobs worldwide on top of the 15,000 announced last year, for a total of up to 25,000 positions. The company also plans to bring down its manufacturing infrastructure to $1 billion dollars, compared with $2.9 billion dollars in January of last year. Kodak expects to complete the layoffs and cost reductions by the middle of 2007. CEO Antonio Perez said these activities are needed to compete profitably in digital markets. As for the 2nd quarter numbers, Kodak reported sales of nearly $3.7 billion, a 6% increase over the same quarter last year. (And let's not forget: this is the third quarter in a row the company lost money.) Kodak reported a net loss of $146 million, or $0.51 per share, compared to a gain of $0.40 cents a share last year. The company blamed the loss on charges related to restructuring and acquisitions. (Good Lord.  This is the same flimsy excuse that's been given for the past twenty years of dismal performance.  Just say it: "We have no clue what the market wants".) Eastman Kodak

On a bright and cheery note, Paychex just announced the creation of 480 jobs over the course of the next five years.  Do the math:  one company creates less than 100 jobs a year over five years... while the largest employer cuts up to 12,500 each year over the next two years.

Even if only 50% of the worldwide job cuts happen in Rochester, that's still up to 6,250 jobs per year lost over the next two years.  Considering Rochester is the worldwide corporate and manufacturing centre for Eastman Kodak, it's extremely unlikely there'll only be 50% of the cuts here.  At least 70% to 80% is more like it.

Put into perspective: there were 60,400 employees at Eastman Kodak in Rochester in 1982.  There were 16,500 at the end of 2004.  How about a view from the Great White North?

Hey, I know!  Let's take a look at how Eastman Kodak stock has performed against the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past ten years:

The red line on the bottom is the venerable Eastman Kodak stock.  One would think that after twenty years of 'positioning themselves for success' through mass lay-offs, Eastman Kodak might be closer to at least appearing successful.  And yet, despite every obvious sign, Eastman Kodak investors are still acting like... well... lemmings.

Think these  v e r y  nervous EK employees are thinking about booking a reservation on a pricy ferry ride to Toronto?  I worked there for 13 years.  I know what they're thinking and it isn't about superfluous entertainment activities.

The pool of prospective Rochester ferry passengers has just shrunk significantly.  I believe this also plays into the local community leader's theory of 'trickle down economics' which -- very annoyingly -- works both ways.  The days of $20-30/hour with juicy benefits and an annual bonus are over for thousands upon thousands of ex- and soon-to-be ex-Kodak workers.  Welcome to the 'fully employed' world of $7-9/hour, NO benefits and NO bonus.  That doesn't bode well for car dealerships, realtors, mall rats or ferry operators.

The new Harley-Davidson that used to be in reach is now going to be an unfulfilled dream.  The promised Disneyworld trip may have to be ramped down to an afternoon at Six Flags at Darien Lake.  Mom and Dad's obligatory 18th birthday car might be a used Toyota instead of the new PT Cruiser.  The lusted-after status-achieving stainless steel gas grill may have to be the KMart clearance item instead. The days of retailer and car dealership "Bonus Days" specials are going to fade into memory.   And so on and so forth.  There simply aren't the same number of jobs paying the same wages for the laid-off EK workers which translates directly into less cash in the Rochester economy.

And less cash for the ferry on this side of the lake.  Consumer and employee entitlement mentality has just received an abrupt wake-up call.

Is there any question the motivation of ferry project is more to tap into the Toronto economy than to showcase Rochester attractions?  I'll admit that's a pretty sour view, but let's at least be real.

See any comparisons between Eastman Kodak and the ferry project?  Both are abject Rochester failures due to a bunch of locals who are so out of touch with what the Real World wants, they can't help but drive themselves deeper into a financial abyss.  Wild assumptions and an unwillingness to venture beyond the local community has put the Rochester area in a state of clueless isolation.  What most Rochester area residents DON'T know about their targeted market in Canada could fill volumes.

(Quick.  How many provinces and territories are there in Canada?  Name them.)

And once again, it's not me who's announcing metro Rochester as 'crime ridden' and 'economically depressed'.  The internet airs dirty laundry like no other medium.  The headlines say it all and the GTA is seeing it for themselves.

Today has been an especially rough day in the Rochester area.  The Deputy Mayor died unexpectantly last night at age 57.  Eastman Kodak will be laying off 10,000 more employees than the originally planned 15,000.  A local worker died after an excavated site collapsed on him.  Shootings continue.  Even minus passenger totals, the ferry is not meeting the revised estimates.

And community leaders keep saying, "Good times are just around the corner".  Sorta makes ya wanna puke?  Most assuredly, Rochester area residents should just keep on waving the flag, keep the provincial head-in-my-own-backyard attitudes and keep conservative, traditional values.

It's been a winning strategy up to now, hasn't it? 

Change is in the air, though.  The city of Rochester is trying to forge a direct relationship with the largest metropolitan area in a foreign country which is as cosmopolitan as Upstate New York is small-town proud.  It's a strange fit; a bit like Homer Simpson applying for membership at the Bel Air Country Club but the Membership Committee is too polite to burst out in doubled-over guffaws.

In any case, the ferry woes have taken a back seat to the greater imperative of finding jobs which will cover the Kodak-wage based mortgages and car loans.  Nevertheless, it's still critical -- and possibly even more important -- to keep an eye on how much public money is being lost by the ferry operation.

When residents are forced to tighten the belt, the city of Rochester had better follow suit or be prepared to suffer the wrath of taxpayers no longer in any mood to fund White Elephants.  With today's dramatically deeper than expected job cuts at Eastman Kodak, the locals may be in a far less tolerant mood to accept ferry operating deficits than they were two weeks ago.

The goose that was promised to lay the proverbial golden eggs had better get cracking... or it just might end up being roasted in very short order.

Coincidentally, today the Seneca Nation announced their intentions of building a casino (complete with its own hotel) in downtown Buffalo.  Smug Rochesterians still smirk about Bethlehem Steel's devastating departure from the Buffalo economy in the 1970's.  With Eastman Kodak's shaky future, the shoe's on the other foot -- but Buffalonians most likely couldn't care less about their high-falutin' suburb to the east.  They never have, so why start now?  (You go, Buffalo!!)

Any bets on how fast Rochester 'leaders' will start kissing some Western Door butts?   Rochester pretty much ignores the First Nations residents of the area (ask a typical local which Native Nation's traditional territory they occupy and the blank stare says it all) so it would certainly be a case of just desserts to ignore their pretentious sucking up aimed at padding their own coffers.

And don't even THINK about approaching the Mohawk Nation to open a casino; we're neither interested or sympathetic in helping bail out some community which can find tens of millions for sports venues and a ferry but can't seem to help the local Native Centre which provides support to local First Nations people. 

Turnabout is fair play.